MESCIUS SPREAD for Windows Forms 17.0J 関数リファレンス
FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT

This function returns a confidence interval for the forecast value at the specified target date. Using confidence interval can help grasp the accuracy of the predicted model. A smaller interval would imply more confidence in the prediction for this specific point.

Syntax

=FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT(target_date,values,timeline,[confidence_level],[seasonality],[data_completion],[aggregation])

Arguments

The function has the following arguments:

Argument

Description

target_date

 [Required] is a date for which you want to predict a new value. Must be after the last date in the timeline.
values [Required] is a range of the historical values for which you want to predict a new point.
timeline

[Required] is a range of date/time values that correspond to the historical values. The timeline range must be of the same size as the values range. Date/time values must have a constant step between them.
confidence_level

[Optional] is a numeric value between 0 and 1 (exclusive) that specifies the confidence level for the calculated confidence interval. If it is omitted, the default value of 0.95 is used.
seasonality

[Optional] is a numeric value that specifies which method should be used to detect the seasonality. The possible values are listed in the table below.

  • 1 or omitted:  Seasonality is detected automatically. Positive, whole numbers are used for the length of the seasonal pattern.
  • 0:  No seasonality, the prediction will be linear.
  • an integer greater than or equal to 2: The specified number is used for the length of the seasonal pattern.
data_completion

[Optional] is a numeric value that specifies how to process the missing data points in the timeline data range. The possible values are listed below.

  • 1 or omitted:  Missing points are calculated as the average of the neighboring points.
  • 0:  Missing points are treated as zero values.
aggregation

[Optional] is a numeric value that specifies which function should be used to aggregate identical time values in the timeline data range. The possible values are listed below.

Numeric Value Function
1 or omitted AVERAGE

2

 COUNT

3

 COUNTA

4

 MAX

5

 MEDIAN

6

 MIN
7: SUM

Remarks

A confidence interval of 95% means that 95% of future points are expected to fall within this radius from the result FORECAST.ETS forecasted (with normal distribution).

Data Types

Returns a specified statistical value relating to a time series.

Examples

Version Available

This function is available in product version 16.0 or later.

 

 

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